Abstract: Based on data from the lightning positioning system in Anhui province and lightning disaster in Bengbu region from 2007 to 2013,four kinds of catastrophic lightning forecasting models were established using the Logistic regression method.36 catastrophic lightning cases were selected as modeling samples,and the strong convective parameters from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model were used as forecasting factors.The results show that three parameters,i.e.,CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy),LFTX (surface LiFTed indeX) and PW (Precipitable Water),can be used as the indexes for catastrophic lightning forecasting in the Bengbu region.These catastrophic lightning forecasting models perform well in forecasting,in which the overall forecasting accuracy of the 08:00-14:00 model is the best,reaching 83%.When the output probability of the forecasting models is higher than 0.7,these models receive the highest skill score and accuracy,as well as lower error and false alarm probability.In general,the summer forecasting model has the best forecasting effect with an average forecasting accuracy of 82.2%.At the dense zones where the lightning occurs,this model can forecast the high probability distribution of lightning.

Key words: Catastrophic lightning, Logistic regression, Strong convective parameter, Forecasting